Summary: The availability heuristic is a phenomenon (which can result in a cognitive bias) in which people predict the frequency of an event, or a proportion within a population, based on how easily an example can be brought to mind.

This phenomenon was first reported by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, who also identified the representativeness heuristic. To see how availability differs from related terms vividness and salience, see availability, salience and vividness.

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Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability

Much recent research has been concerned with the validity and consistency of frequency and probability judgments. Little is known, however, about the psychology mechanisms by which people evaluate the frequency of classes or the likelihood of events.

We propose that when faced with the difficult task of judging probability or frequency, people employ a limited number of heuristics which reduce these judgments or simpler ones. Elsewhere we have analyzed in detail one such heuristic – representativeness. By this heuristic, an event is judged probable to the extent that it represents the essential features of its parent population or generating process….

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Optional: Judgement And Decision Making

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