I wish more people used Long Bets. In fact, I wish it was a requirement for any expert who hangs his hat on the idea that he can “predict” the future in his domain. Not only would a system like this make everyone from economists to futurists more accountable to their own thoughts, but it would give the rest of us a way to check our experts against reality.

It’s a lot harder to stick to a nonsensical viewpoint when you have $1,000 on the line.

Unfortunately, Long Bets is still a fairly small endeavor for a limited group of academic and business types. This might say something in itself, there just isn’t a lot of demand for accountability amongst our oracles.

Think you know what will happen in the future? Would you care to make a wager on that? Since 2002, Long Bets has served as an arena for prognosticators of all calibers to make predictions, challenge others, and place bets on whose vision of the future will ultimately come true. Before you go running to gamble on sports or celebrity outfits you should know that the website only accepts predictions of “societal or scientific importance.” Also, unlike with real gambling, the wagers made on Long Bets aren’t given to the winners, but to a charity of their choosing. While many of the predictions on Long Bets will take decades to see an outcome, others are resolved each year – Netflix’s expansion of its video-on-demand services recently decided a $2000 wager. Under the guidance of President Kevin Kelly, founder of Wired, Long Bets is aimed at providing a place where futurists can be held accountable. After all, if you’re trying to get others to believe in your predictions, shouldn’t you be willing to put some money on the line?

Read Long Bets: Putting Money Where Your Predictions Are (Via Singularity Hub) (Images)

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