Here is a thought experiment for the day. What is a new media company worth?

In the case of Techcrunch, the going rate is about $100 Million. What does this buy you? About 1.5 Million unique visitors. This is about 1/3rd of the total monthly visitors to CNET — a mainstream media company that would likely love to get the seminal tech blog of day into its portfolio. Is it worth it though? Maybe not, lets take a look.

Going, Going…Gone?

The power of Techcrunch comes from two sources, both of which could be lost if a major news brand picks it up.

Mike Arrington As A Cult Of Personality. People read Techcrunch because it can be most easily summed up as, “The Mike Arrington Tech Show.” The other writers keep the publishing schedule going (with the exception of Duncan, who I believe has come into his own) but they don’t have strong resonance with the readership. Unless the acquisition allowed Mike to retain full editorial control over the voice of the publication, most of the allure of the blog could be lost.

Techcrunch As An Independent News Source. This is a little harder to predict, but it’s worth considering. Techcrunch often rails against major media brands as being slow to get to the news. If they were to “sell out” to one of these companies, readers who pride Techcrunch as being the powerful, independent voice in tech news may be turned off. Being “just another CNET blog” takes all the fun out of the brand.

Web 2.0 Roundup

Does this mean that Techcrunch and other huge blogs like it won’t eventually be sold off? Not at all. The market is too ripe for acquisition for all of the major bloggers to resist if the opportunity presents itself. The question that this raises is how much of the strength of these new media brands is connected to its authors, and whether brand new corporate sponsors would dilute that strength enough to make the buy imprudent.

UPDATE: Here is a statement about traffic statistics from Dan Farber of CNET.

CNET Networks (which includes sites such as CNET, GameSpot, TV.com, MP3.com, CHOW, ZDNet, and TechRepublic, with a global footprint) overall has more than 137 million unique users per month. According to official CNET Networks statements, 2007 total annual revenues are expected to be in the range of $405 million to $430 million. Including $20 million in stock compensation expense, operating income is estimated to be between $18 million and $33 million.

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