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By Steve Spalding September 20th, 2007
Under: How To Read Shorts
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The season for Recession 2.0 is in full swing again with bloggers gearing up for an economic downturn. The outlook is not quite as doom and gloom as is usually the case when the blogosphere catches a case of the market correction blues, and for good reason. Even when the bubble does pop most of “pillars” of the tech economy will be just fine.
Lets take a look at a few reasons why.
Google and Microsoft will certainly not see a dramatic drop in their stock prices as a result of a general economic downturn. As long as commodity priced hardware and smart advertising dollars stay constant, these companies will be able to absorb most problems.
Web 2.0 is an acquisition economy. A serious collapse will hurt the market value of most of the “me too” companies, but with the huge players flush with cash it is likely that they will take the opportunity to pick up some new technology at cut rate prices.
Web 2.0 hasn’t seen a load of IPOs. Which means that there isn’t all that much publically traded stock to take a beating. The only people with real exposure in this bubble are VCs.
There it is. The only group that is likely to suffer from a possible crash are the investors who have dumped money into the “monetizing eyeballs” schema. Even this damage will likely be mitigated by the slew of acquisitions that will likely follow the pop.
It might just be luck, but it looks like we may have actually learned something from the first bubble.
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