science

“Once upon a time, there was a caveman named Fred. (I refuse to name him “Oog” or something, just on principle.) Fred was a very bright guy, but he had absolutely no knowledge of the laws of nature. Please don’t ask how poor Fred managed to grow up this way: it’s a sad sort of story, and not terribly relevant to my moral . . . ”

Wait right there. Don’t worry, we’ll get back to Fred later but for now — let me give you some background. Tonight’s subject is the Scientific Method.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? If not, let me refresh your memory. It’s that set of guidelines made famous by such films as Armageddon and Deep Impact, and it allows scientists (or actors pretending to be scientists) to deduce complex theory from first principle.

For the formal “steps,” let’s turn to Science Buddies –

  • Ask a Question
  • Do Background Research
  • Construct a Hypothesis
  • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
  • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your Results

Why am I such a big fan of this way of looking at the world? Most simply it’s because it wraps an amorphous concept, “the pursuit of knowledge,” into a process. It gives structure and focus to what otherwise might be an unmanageable task.

Now let’s tread on some more familiar ground.

Projects fail for a variety of reasons, but what ties the most obnoxious ones together is that they usually start with, “I wish I would have . . .” and end with, “earlier.” The failure is not in the idea itself, but in the fact what we missed something obvious because we never took the time to develop a process. The result? Somewhere amidst the ten thousand distractions that keep entrepreneurs up until the wee small hours of the morning, we forgot something obvious — something that came crashing down on our heads.

How do you build this magical, mystical catch-all process then? Well you could take some time to dig into your project, and uncover all the little things that might trip you up six months down the line, or you can take a gander at the Scientific Method and realize why my love for it runs so deep.

Let’s go through the steps.

Ask a Question – Or more appropriately, “Answer a Question.” Before you commit yourself to a project, decide what you are actually trying to solve. Does your idea fix a real, tangible problem or is it just another brick in the wall?

Do Background Research – This is so critical I have a hard time emphasizing it more. Take some time to get to know what’s out there. Understand who is currently doing what you want to be doing in three months. Think about it — if you are going to build a product that fills in the gaps in the market, you are going to have to first identify those gaps.

Construct A Hypothesis – Answer the following: What problem am I solving? What can I do better than my closest competitor? What can I charge for? How many customers should I expect? How much can I afford to spend based on expected customers? Turn that into a sentence or two and you have your hypothesis.

Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment – Build something. The point here is that your initial product is only a test. As silly of an idea as the “Eternal Beta” is, what you need to keep in mind is that great ideas are malleable, and that the only way to make them better is to test them in the field. Don’t be afraid to be wrong.

Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion – Were you right? Take a look at the questions you answered in the earlier steps and check them against reality. How correct was your “hypothesis” and how much do you still have to change? As important as it is to change based on data, the real kernel here is that you have to put in structures that allow you to collect the data you will use to change in an effective manner.

Communicate Your Results – This is the clincher and it goes back to all my ramblings on the importance of community. The difference between a good product and one that fails (at least when we’re talking about websites) is in the feedback loop. Are you talking to your fans? Do you thank the people who help you? Are you working to win over your detractors? Without communication, science dies with the scientist. Without communication, ideas might as well stay on your whiteboard.

That, my friends, is that — for a much more eloquent look at the importance of the scientific method, let me return you to the story of Fred the caveman –

Where was I? Oh, yes…one day, Fred was walking through the woods, incredibly hungry as cavemen often were, and he picked up a rock. He looked at it, maybe took an experimental bite or two, and decided that it was not particularly edible. Anyway, he’d had rocks for breakfast that morning. So, he let the rock go, content to move along his way. Bam! Down came the rock, right on his foot. This is the critical part of the story, so pay close attention: he let go of the rock, and it fell on his foot.

Fred kept walking. Still hungry. He picked up another rock, let it go. Bam! It missed his foot this time, but other than that, it went pretty much the same way the first rock did: straight down. His mind racing, Fred began to suspect a pattern. If he were scientifically minded, he might have expressed it something like this:

Go ahead and read the rest from Kenny Felder.

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